WA election rerun

It’s not decided yet, but the odds look good for a new WA senate election, to clear things up after the AEC’s recount discovered 1375 missing votes. (I gather from Antony Green that the AEC actually knows what these votes were, or at least how they were originally counted, but they can’t be used in the recount unless they are actually recounted.)

There’s a delightful arcane complexity to the logic behind the counts themselves. It’s a question of the Shooters and Fishers vs the Australian Christians. Neither of them have a hope of being elected on their numbers, but (essentially by pure luck) that two-way contest happens to decide between four other parties. The original count had the Shooters winning against the Christians by 14 votes, setting up Labor and Palmer United for a win against the Greens and the Sports Party. The recount (with 1375 votes missing) turned this around into a 12 vote relative victory for the Christians, leading to a actual Greens/Sports victory.

It all seems a bit like a series of football matches in which, due to complex points calculations, the fate of your team actually depends on a game they’re not even playing. However, in general, organisers of sporting competitions don’t suddenly decide to reverse the result of a match played eight weeks ago between two of the bottom teams, leading to the current set of finals contenders suddenly being rounded up mid-game and replaced by a bunch written off three weeks ago.

Possibly the most counter-intuitive thing is this: if just a few Labor supporters magically had foreknowledge of this complex turn of events, they might have realised that a vote for the Shooters would do more to help Labor than a vote for Labor itself. The same would be true of Palmer United and the Greens, though Greens supporters would have had to vote for the Christians, of all people.

A new election will wipe the slate clean, in a way, but Labor and the Coalition have begun to play an interesting game there. According to the Coalition’s Warren Truss — our new Deputy Prime Minister:

I think if there is a new election … it needs to happen as quickly as possible so there is as little distance between the atmosphere and the issues that decided the election in September and what will be on the table at the time that a new WA poll is held …

Meanwhile, Labor’s Tanya Plibersek (Acting Opposition Leader) says this:

It is important that the investigation [into the missing 1375 votes] is given an opportunity to run its course.

Once that investigation’s given an opportunity to run its course, we’ll have to make a decision about the way we can best be confident that the voice of every Western Australian has been heard.

Spot the difference. The Coalition wants to get it done ASAP, but Labor wants to make sure all the details are known, which of course may delay things a bit. According to Antony Green, the election rerun must occur “by the latest in early May”. The Coalition would probably be concerned — and Labor might be somewhat enthusiastic — about a shift in public opinion between now and then.

In the disputed recount, the Liberals won 3 seats, while Labor, the Greens and the Sports parties won one each. One seat out of six is a pretty poor showing for Labor, and it looks like it was only 0.14 quotas away from a second in its own right. In an election rerun, depending on the evolution of public opinion, Labor and the Greens could do quite a lot better.

If Labor/Greens come away with three seats together, they would have 36 senate seats in total. This could come at the expense of either the Sports Party or the Liberals. Either way, the bargaining power of the other Senate cross-benchers would be significantly increased, and Abbott’s options for getting things through the Senate would be diminished.

If things go particularly disastrously for the Coalition, and Labor/Greens come away with four seats in WA, and so 37 senators overall, they could combine with Nick Xenophon to block legislation such as the carbon tax repeal. (Senate votes require a majority of more than half. There are 76 senators, so the government needs 39 of them to pass legislation, and the opposition needs 38 to block it.)

The Coalition presumably knows this, and will probably spend the election campaign1 whinging about Labor’s carbon tax and the threat to civilisation and indeed to the very fabric of reality that it poses. But Labor can itself spend the campaign pointing out that Abbott isn’t big on public transport funding, GST revenue, or whatever other issues float into view at the time. And everyone else can talk about the election in a changed context — we’re not deciding which party actually governs, but rather how best to hold the government to account, which of course presupposes a particular answer.

And so the game is this: the longer that it takes to hold a new WA senate election, the more likely it is that Abbott’s “honeymoon” period will wind down in the mean time, and voters will start to assign responsibility to him and the Coalition for any failings of government. This is presumably what Truss is hinting at when he talks about the “atmosphere and the issues”. He wants to avoid an election rerun being used by voters to pass judgment on the Coalition, because, conceptually, this would still be part of the election that brought them to power in the first place.

I wonder if the WA public will see it like that. In any case, WA politics may soon — if just briefly — become very important to the rest of Australia.

  1. There has to be a campaign even for an election rerun. []

Fun with Senate GVT Data

As I learnt from the Poll Bludger, the Senate group voting tickets were released a few days ago. (The data is available in CSV form from the AEC: NSW, Vic, Qld, WA, SA, Tas, ACT, NT.)

Group voting tickets (if you don’t know) are the way most voters choose to vote on the senate ballot paper. They are the above-the-line option, where you choose one party only, and (perhaps unbeknownst to many) cede your choice of 2nd, 3rd, etc. preferences to that party. A GVT is a list of preferences for senate candidates, decided in advance by each party. You can either select a GVT (whose details are not shown to you on the ballot paper, except for the first preference), or number all the candidates.

I thought it would be interesting to see how the pantheon of parties ranks itself. Which parties are closer to the front of the other parties’ preferences? Which parties are despised by all? Where do the major and high-profile minor parties come?

Here they all are. I’ve included every political party and independent contesting senate seats in every state and territory. The bars on the graph1 represent the median position of a party among all parties’ preferences. Smaller bars are preferable, indicating that a party is closer to the front of overall parties’ preferences. I stole the colour coding from the ABC.

(Note: there’s nothing predictive about this graph. It’s just a representation of what the different parties think of each other.)

GvtPositions

Parties contesting senate seats differ state-to-state. Independents and many minor parties run in one state only. Other parties have subtly different registered names in different states. I’ve tried to remove these inconsistencies in the graph. However, the Liberals and Nationals further confuse things by being the same party in Queensland but not anywhere else.

Anyway, here are some observations:

  • Australian First Nations occupies the most favourable position by a wide margin, though they are an NT-only party.
  • The Australian Sports Party is next, perhaps in keeping with our vaunted national identity, and/or perhaps because it’s a feel-good concept that compares starkly with the entrenched ideology of other parties.
  • Most established, high-profile parties lie at the bottom of the list, towards the end of overall parties’ preferences. The more we see of our political parties, the more faults we find. Moreover, the established, high-profile parties are probably the ones considered the largest barrier to the chances of all other parties.
  • The Greens are fourth-last, and are perhaps in the unenviable position of being seen as an “establishment” party even while struggling to maintain a presence in the House of Representatives.
  • Family First, meanwhile, seems to have attracted disproportionate magnanimity. Did Steve Fielding really capture our hearts after all?
  • The wisdom of our political tacticians has placed Bob Katter slightly ahead of Clive Palmer2. It will be interesting to see if either makes a dent in the status quo.

It’s curious that the major parties should be so far down the list, considering the undisguised craziness of others like One Nation, Rise Up Australia, the DLP, etc. Is that really the path we want to go down? Given the choice between (a) a senator from your least favourite major party, and (b) a senator from Rise Up Australia, who do you think would do the least damage?

I had also intended to use the GVT data to construct a network of parties, showing allies and enemies (where an alliance is implied by one preferencing the other before all major parties). The result is currently too cluttered to be readable, though.

  1. Actually, a bar graph doesn’t quite feel quite right, because the data represent positions rather than quantities, but it was the easiest choice. []
  2. The ABC has decided that these two are now worthy of colour coding. Palmer takes yellow from the Democrats, and Katter takes brown from One Nation. If Katter and Palmer fail, who will be next? []

Are the Greens extreme?

Some personal context: at the time of writing, I am not, nor have I ever been, a member of a political party, nor have I campaigned for one (unless you include my writings on this blog, and if you do that you’d be equating mere opinion with political campaigning). I think and write independently of any political party’s political interests. I intend to perpetuate this state of affairs.

That said, I do care about what political parties say and do. I’ve noticed a bipartisan anti-Greens position, or brand, being forged in federal politics in the last few years. It came easily to the Coalition, of course. You may recall that the 2010 Victorian state election saw them preferencing Labor above the Greens, in a break with tradition. (Strategically, the major parties usually feature last on each other’s how-to-vote cards — a move that is tactically sound but ideologically questionable.)

But Labor has since been partly goaded, partly embarrassed into joining their arch-enemies over the party that has supported them in minority government. Perhaps it was the indignation of having to negotiate the passage of legislation with someone other than the true guardians of democracy — the NSW Right. (Our current Treasurer Chris Bowen apparently thinks that, though the Labor-Greens deal wasn’t actually a mistake, it should never happen again. Presumably he will be righteously refusing any offers to form government in the event of a future hung parliament. I can’t properly comprehend the reasoning behind this. If the Greens have the balance of power, it’s either a Labor-Greens coalition or another election, and what are voters to make of a party that refuses to form government?)

This joint position on the Greens is one whose adherents speak in grim, vacuous generalities about “extremists”, a term that seems intended to de-legitimise the Greens by association with the most radical of ideological hard-liners. People who advocate wholesale violence against ethnic minorities are called extremists. People who support terrorism, or who are terrorists themselves, are called extremists. What have the Greens done to deserve the same label? Endorsed the Whitehaven coal mine funding hoax, rudely drawing our attention again to climate change1? Advocated for the human rights of asylum seekers2? We’re all entitled to disagree, perhaps vehemently, but let’s please keep some perspective.

For all that the Greens have been condemned for being hard-liners, compromise must work both ways, and the Coalition has hardly been a picture of moderation and open-mindedness. Labor has shifted its own objectives quite a lot, but mostly in a vain, clumsy effort to outflank the Coalition, rather than in pursuit of the greater good. Ultimately, the Labor, Liberal and National parties have their own established interests, and naturally resent having others take up space at the table. It is an observable truth that the Greens do make compromises. How could they not? To fail to compromise, for a minor party, even one supporting a minority government, is to deal yourself out of the game. Do the Greens compromise enough? Many would say no, but we could haggle over that forever. There is no objectively correct amount of compromise, just a lot of heated opinion.

As inferred from the first paragraph, I am not associated with the Greens in any capacity. I emphatically disagree with them on genetic engineering and nuclear technology, where I find their policies to be naïve and simplistic. These technologies have manageable risks, and oft-ignored but very real benefits, and the more we learn through scientific endeavour, the more manageable the risks will be, and the more beneficial the applications.

Nevertheless, when it comes to the ballot paper, I tend to rank the Greens above both major parties. They don’t always come first in my estimation of the lesser of various evils, but, in effect, as long as I rank them above Labor and the Coalition, I’m supporting them. I couldn’t possibly do this without Australia’s preferential voting system, which grants us all the opportunity for fairly nuanced expression of our political beliefs.

Partly this is a kind of tactical support. I’m a former Democrats voter, and parliament needs its crossbenchers to occasionally inject some constructive criticism. We need a diversity of opinions, over and above the perpetual war of words between uncritical government MPs and unconstructive opposition MPs (which party holds government being irrelevant to this state of affairs). Independents and other minor parties can also fulfil this role, of course. Were there to be only two parties in parliament, the competence of that institution would be diminished, and we would all suffer for it.

Policies do matter as well, but minor party policies are not the same kind of animal as major party policies. A minor party really only has a wish list of things it believes in, some of which it might be able to persuade the government to partly implement at an opportune moment, if it gets lucky. One should not vote for, or against, a minor party on the expectation that everything it desires will come true.

By contrast, a major party’s policies are a largely complete statement of what it, as the current or future government, will strive to implement by itself. A major party expects to implement its agenda mostly unhindered, or not at all. It has much greater responsibility for coherent, costed policy development than minor parties. It owes this responsibility to the fact that it controls the budget — such power as minor parties can only dream of.

The Greens would not be averse to becoming a major party, by winning greater public support (however unlikely that may be), and in so doing acquire this power and responsibility for themselves. At that point, we should demand that the Greens exercise fiscal prudence. However, until they do — without the power to make budgetary decisions — such demands make little sense. Fiscal prudence, when exercised by a minor party in policy development, has no real-world consequences. It is entirely symbolic and mostly ignored.

In essence, it’s power that creates responsibility, and the need to hold political parties to account. The Greens certainly have some power, even if the extent of it has been wildly overstated.

However, to merely shout “extremism” at the Greens invites questions as to one’s own capacity and willingness to engage in informed debate. Without a point of reference, the word “extreme” is meaningless, and does nothing to inform the electorate. If you think the Greens are wrong, then by all means make your case. If you want the Greens to be held to account, articulate your criticism and challenge them and their supporters to provide their own reasoning and evidence. We might all learn something from the ensuing discussion.

But even when and if the Greens are wrong, does that in itself make them “extreme”? Consider the frequency with which the major parties make their own colossal mistakes. Consider the magnitude of the damage when the government gets it wrong, and compare that to the problem of minor party naïvety. It is not “extreme” to simply be wrong, and even if you are wrong, your contribution to the debate can still be constructive, by compelling others to justify themselves. It seems to me that we have little to fear from this.

  1. The means do not, of course, justify the ends, but I dare say that the consequences were blown a little out of proportion for political convenience. []
  2. This I’m very much in favour of. []

I vote for a hung parliament

How did it come to this? The Greens, supposedly a party of the “far left” (whatever that means), are now the flag bearers for a market-based policy – carbon emissions trading.

Rudd along with three successive opponents – Howard, Nelson and Turnbull — all pledged to introduce or support an ETS. Now the Labor Party has well and truly capitulated. What crumbs Gillard has to offer in lieu of a price on carbon look as bizarre and pitiful as those sprinkled before us by Abbott. Crikey has a good summary of the situation.

The most positive thing you can say about Gillard’s position is that it’s sufficiently ambiguous to allow some sort of action in the future. That’s what we’re left with, just six months after both major parties successfully concluded negotiations to pass ETS legislation. I can only gape in astonishment at the magnitude of the bipartisan failure of leadership having occurred in the intervening time. Gillard has just propelled this failure to new hitherto unknown depths of farce by abdicating responsibility to, quite literally, a random assortment of laypeople.

On the merits of its policies (climate change, asylum seekers and Internet filtering), the Labor Party frankly deserves to lose this election, and lose it badly. So, of course, do the Liberals, for many of the same reasons. I’m still of the mind that the Liberals deserve to lose slightly more, mainly because I’d prefer Labor’s incompetence over the Liberals’ incompetence and poorly-disguised ideological mindset, but it’s a close call.

The most positive election result I can imagine now is a hung parliament, with the Greens holding the balance of power in the House of Representatives (presumably as well as in the Senate). I don’t care to guess how likely this is, considering the Greens have never won a single seat in the House of Reps before. However, I expect they’ll be the beneficiaries of an electoral backlash. They deserve to do very well indeed, in my opinion, simply by holding to a broad policy that used to enjoy bipartisan support — the only climate change policy that even really deserves to be labeled as such. The prospect of a forced coalition with the Greens would surely help drag at least one of the major parties back to the negotiation table.

Gods, where’s Malcolm Turnbull when you need him? This is turning out to be a stinker of an election.

Same-sex marriage bill

Senator Sarah Hanson-Young of the Greens has introduced the Marriage Equality Amendment Bill 2009. It’s been referred to the a Senate committee, due to report on November 26.

Plenty of time for a raft of both enlightening and cringeworthy commentary to materialise as public submissions. The bill isn’t going to get far, of course (though I will be happy to be proven wrong). The ALP seems to be walking a path of compromise that it hopes will be minimally acceptable to the maximum number of voters; i.e. they do not support same-sex marriage, but they support everything that same-sex marriage is about.

Personally, I think that the same-sex marriage issue, more than almost anything else, shows vividly just how much sway religious and social dogma has over our society, compared to empathy and rational thought. There just isn’t any remotely intelligible argument against allowing same-sex marriage – just a haphazard collection of inane and fearful pronouncements. There are precious few political issues where I’d feel comfortable saying that.

Yes and no

I came home from a dinner with the rellies to find that the daylight savings referendum had been defeated, which was mildly disappointing but hardly surprising. There’ll be another referendum in a while. At least I remembered to vote this time.

However, I am surprised and intrigued that the Greens candidate Adele Carles managed to pull off a convincing victory in the Fremantle by-election – 54% to Labor’s 46% two-candidate-preferred vote (with 79% of votes counted). The Libs seem not to have bothered to field a candidate, but I suspect they’d be satisfied with a Labor defeat. Even though the Greens are even more ideologically opposed to the Libs than Labor, they might create complications for the formation of a future Labor government.

Stimulated by Kevin

It appears that, in the coming weeks, most of us will be receiving $900 from The Man, with which we must do our patriotic duty as consumers and… well, consume. I suppose we should all be buying Australian goods and services as much as possible, though that line always sounds a little parochial to me. It’s a global crisis, after all.

However, it’s nice to have a Senate that isn’t just a rubber stamp for the Government’s every whim. The Greens managed to wrangle a few improvements to the package without appearing to play games, which is a neat trick in our consummately adversarial political system. On the other hand, Senator Nick Xenophon’s brinkmanship over funding for the Murray-Darling probably isn’t how the democratic process is supposed to work. When interviewed on Insiders, he reassured everyone that he would indeed have scuttled the whole thing had he not gotten his way. Malcolm Turnbull still isn’t having any of it, of course, but I just can’t get fired up over arguments concerning tax cuts vs. handouts, and he looks like he was just fishing around for some arbitrary way to differentiate Liberal policy from Labor policy.

For my own part, I am considering various options for disposing of $900. I’m so unused to spending that kind of money that it might take me a while to work out how to do it. Upgrading my computer and acquiring saddle bags for my bike could make a substantial dent. I could, of course, blow the whole lot on chocolate. For $900 I could get 300 250g blocks, amounting to slightly more than my (current) body weight. Hurrah for capitalism.

Conroy’s train wreck

The Federal Government’s proposed mandatory Internet filtering scheme has been battered and bruised from all corners of the technical community. Yet Senator Stephen Conroy valiantly battles on. Last year I wrote to the Senator to express my views, and also to the Greens and to my local member, Steve Irons. Conroy eventually replied with a stock letter that amounted to little more than a press release.

Conroy has consistently refused to explain exactly what the filter would actually block (principally child pornography, but also other “unwanted” material), how technical barriers will be overcome, and how the results of the pilot will be assessed. I shall briefly list some other important absurdities for your amusement:

  • nobody stumbles across child pornography by accident (the main premise of the scheme) – you have to be looking for it;
  • nobody knows how to construct a filter that will defeat well-known and widely-available countermeasures;
  • filtering in this case would be done based on a list of banned sites, which is not open to public review but which can be obtained illicitly anyway [pdf];
  • the very fact that a site is filtered prevents anyone from (legitimately) determining whether it should be filtered; and of course
  • filtering  is known to have an enormous impact on network speeds (the more comprehensive the filter, the greater the impact).

I may yet send another letter, but what good it would do I’m not sure.

I now suspect that Conroy (or at least the Labor Party in general) knows all this. They may have actually figured it out some time ago, but decided to fight on to save face. They may actually be relying on the Greens and the Coalition to vote down the scheme in the Senate, so that there doesn’t have to be a public backflip. Doubtless the Greens would oblige, and the Coalition looks like it will as well. Conroy certainly isn’t reaching out for their support, and he probably won’t make much noise when the legislation fails. However, it would be amusing at some level if it passed, because then we’d truly have a fiasco – Conroy would eventually be forced to publicly back down and the concept of Internet filtering would be sunk.